Situation report

 

This report provides a glance at the developing situation for the purposes of scenario planning.

Information provided by Dexibit does not constitute government, legal or financial advice.

SITUATION REPORT AS AT Wednesday, June 17th 2020

 

General global perspective

The below represents a general basis for creating and monitoring scenario simulations, collated from industry commentary.

Optimistic outlook
Controlled recovery with sharp shock, pent up

  • Imminently opening (if not already)
  • No subsequent shutdowns
  • Pent up demand
  • Dampened international tourism
  • Improved domestic ‘staycation’ tourism
  • Near normal spending behavior
  • 12 month recovery outlook

Probable outlook
Paced recovery from recession with slow growth

  • July reopening
  • No subsequent shutdowns
  • Bounce back demand
  • Dampened international tourism
  • Improved domestic ‘staycation’ tourism
  • Near normal spending behavior
  • 18 month recovery outlook

Pessimistic outlook
Pandemic triggered depression  

  • September to December reopening
  • Rolling shutdowns (a month for every quarter)
  • Regulated capacity limitations
  • No dine in food and beverage
  • Severely limited, slow growth
  • No international tourism
  • Low domestic movements
  • Depression spending behavior
  • No school or group bookings, ban on theatres, events
  • 36 month recovery outlook

Global voices

As the world emerges from lockdown, we look back on interviews with industry associations around the world to compare the economic impact and sector approach globally, asking each to offer advice from their unique regional perspective.

For the full interview for your region, listen at podcast.dexibit.com

Public health

The pandemic has 11.4m confirmed cases led by the United States with 2.9m, then Brazil, Russia and India. There have been 533k deaths, led by the United States with 130k, then Brazil and the United Kingdom.  The 5 day average is trending up for Brazil, Mexico, the United States, India, Colombia, Iran and Iraq, but down for Peru, Russia and Chile. In the past few weeks, there has been a rising elevation in the United States.

Data by John Hopkins University and Medicine

 

Economic outlook

The global economy is projected to contract sharply in real gross world output by -3 percent in 2020 (a more pronounced -6.1 percent in advanced economies), much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario where the pandemic fades and containment eases in latter 2020, growth of 5.8 percent is forecast for 2021 (a more muted 4.5 percent in advanced economies) as economies return to normal with the help of government support. In a more pessimistic scenario where containment measures continue, substantial and targeted government support will be required together with multi lateral cooperation.

Data by International Monetary Fund

 

Foreign affairs

All countries have reduced air traffic, most with significant travel warnings in place, many with bans for foreigners or quarantines. Some recovering regions such as Asia Pacific, Australasia and Scandinavia (except Sweden) are discussing the potential for less restrictive cross region travel allowances. Europe has opened for summer tourism to an approved list of countries of origin.

Information via Aljazeera.

 

Regional variations

Regional specific information is provided to cover markets within the scope of Dexibit’s operations.

United States

The Whitehouse has published guidelines for reopening using a three phased approach, with a proposed criteria consisting of downward trajectory of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and documented cases within a 14 day period alongside the ability to treat all patients without crisis care and robust testing for at risk healthcare workers. Though most states have begun their reopening plans, some have paused or reversed reopening options due to rising case numbers, particularly noticeable in Florida, Arizona and California. Many have begun enforcing face mask use in public.

For more information, refer to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

United Kingdom

The ‘Stay Home, Stay Safe’ order has changed to a ‘Stay Alert, Control the Virus, Save Lives’ message. Prime Minister Johnson unveiled the government’s conditional roadmap to reopen from lockdown in an address to the nation, advising that those who can work from home, should and those who cannot, should be encouraged to return to work, preferably with public transport. It had previously been said this next phase could only be embarked upon when the government’s five tests were met, including making sure the National Health Service can cope, sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths, rate of infection decreasing to manageable levels, ensuring supply of tests and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and confidence adjustments will not risk a second peak. A  return to activity has been planned around a new five level alert system with a staged reopening plan, which has allowed some venues including to open in step 3 if they can meet certain guidelines, plus schools and shops already allowed to open.

Northern Ireland has published a separate five stage reopening plan, with visitor attractions open. Scotland released a route map.

From July 10, arrivals from a published list of low risk nations will no longer need to quarantine, with a 14 day self isolation expected for other border arrivals. For more information, refer to GOV.UK.

European Union

Physical distancing guidance has been issued in most countries with a relatively slow reopening. In June, many countries also relaxed travel restrictions though as of July 1, the European Union renewed its travel ban on non essential travel into the European Union for non European Union citizens, residents and their families, with the ban to be reviewed fortnightly.

For more information, refer to the interactive map of reopenings by the Network of European Museum Organisations (NEMO).

Asia Pacific

Across Asia, most visitor attractions have reopened though Beijing and South Korea faced rolling closures due to new outbreaks, which required the constraint (capacity constraints using timed pass entry) or closure of some visitor attractions.

Australia entered a three stage national framework with most visitor attraction public venues reopened with phase 2 and larger events and other venues plus interstate travel resuming in stage 3, subject to state and territory particulars. The state of Victoria has entered into isolated shut downs due to outbreaks.

Following eradication, New Zealand moved to Level 1 alert on June 9th allowing all public venues, including stadiums and performing arts to reopen with no restrictions on capacity, physical distancing or other measures.

For more information, refer to our recent webinar on The view from the other side: reopenings in Asia.