This report provides a glance at the developing situation for the purposes of scenario planning.
Information provided by Dexibit does not constitute government, legal or financial advice.
SITUATION REPORT AS AT WEDNESDAY, MAY 20th 2020
General global perspective
The below represents a general basis for creating and monitoring scenario simulations, collated from industry commentary.
Controlled recovery with sharp shock, pent up demand
- Mid to late May reopening
- No subsequent shutdowns
- Pent up demand
- Dampened international tourism
- Improved domestic ‘staycation’ tourism
- Near normal spending behavior
- 18 month recovery outlook
Significant travel and entertainment market slide
- June or July reopening
- Rolling shutdowns (such as September and January)
- Slow growth
- Low international tourism, no cruise ships
- Mostly hyper local then drive in audiences
- Recessionary spending behavior
- 24 month recovery outlook
Pandemic triggered heavy recession or depression
- September to December reopening
- Rolling shutdowns (a month for every quarter)
- Regulated capacity limitations
- No dine in food and beverage
- Severely limited, slow growth
- No international tourism
- Low domestic movements
- Depression spending behavior
- No school or group bookings, ban on theatres, events
- 36 month recovery outlook
The pandemic has 4.9m confirmed cases led by the United States with 1.5m, then Spain, the United Kingdom and Italy. There have been 323k deaths, led by the United States with 92k, then the United Kingdom, Italy and France. The 5 day average is trending up for the United States, Brazil, Belgium and Iran, but down for the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain, Germany and Canada. This week marks a positive turn – last week, as measures relaxed slightly, all but one of the top 10 countries by cases was into an upward trend – for some, curves have begun pointing down again.
Data by John Hopkins University and Medicine.
The global economy is projected to contract sharply in real gross world output by -3 percent in 2020 (a more pronounced -6.1 percent in advanced economies), much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario where the pandemic fades and containment eases in latter 2020, growth of 5.8 percent is forecast for 2021 (a more muted 4.5 percent in advanced economies) as economies return to normal with the help of government support. In a more pessimistic scenario where containment measures continue, substantial and targeted government support will be required together with multi lateral cooperation.
Data by International Monetary Fund.
All countries have reduced air traffic, most with significant travel warnings in place, many with bans for foreigners or quarantines. Some recovering regions such as Asia Pacific are discussing the potential for less restrictive cross region travel allowances.
Information via Aljazeera.
Regional specific information is provided to cover markets within the scope of Dexibit’s operations.
The Whitehouse has published guidelines for reopening using a three phased approach, with a proposed criteria consisting of downward trajectory of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and documented cases within a 14 day period alongside the ability to treat all patients without crisis care and robust testing for at risk healthcare workers. Shelter in place orders are being lifted in some states, yet extended in others. 45 states and the District of Columbia have ordered or recommended school closures through to the end of the academic year. Some venues with the option to reopen have elected not to for now.
For more information, refer to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The ‘Stay Home, Stay Safe’ order has changed to a ‘Stay Alert, Control the Virus, Save Lives’ message. Prime Minister Johnson has unveiled the government’s conditional roadmap to reopen from lockdown in an address to the nation on May 10th, advising that those who can work from home, should and those who cannot, should be encouraged to return to work, preferably with public transport, with further advice to follow. It had previously been said this next phase could only be embarked upon when the government’s five tests were met, including making sure the National Health Service can cope, sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths, rate of infection decreasing to manageable levels, ensuring supply of tests and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and confidence adjustments will not risk a second peak. A staged return to activity has been planned in the coming months, though at this stage further clarification is needed to assess at what stage various venue sizes and types will be able to reopen and under what conditions. The government has unveiled a new five level alert system, with a staged reopening plan (venues can open in step 3 if they can meet certain guidelines, expected to be no earlier than July 4) and announced schools and some shops are set to open on June 1.
Northern Ireland has published a separate five stage reopening plan, with select open air venues able to open in phase 2, followed by others in step 3, though dates are to be confirmed. Scotland is expected to release a route map on May 18.
In addition, a 14 day self isolation is expected for border arrivals to the United Kingdom (with some exceptions).
For more information, refer to GOV.UK.
In some European countries such as Sweden, physical distancing guidance has been issued but without a strict stay home order and businesses remain open. In others such as Germany, visitor attractions have begun opening, though with guidelines varying by states and only a few choosing to do so despite having the option. Others such as Italy and Belgium intend to reopen mid May. For many countries, heavy measures are still in place.
For more information, refer to the interactive map of reopenings by the Network of European Museum Organisations (NEMO).
In mainland China, many visitor attractions have reopened, however a number of venues, particularly larger operations, remain closed or with significant operational limitations. In Hong Kong, venues are beginning to reopen in May following a second wave closure. Some prefectures in Japan may allow the reopening of public facilities in May, despite an extension of Japan’s state of emergency, with government guidelines to be issued on the May 11th. Singapore’s restrictions remain in place until June, noting social entertainment outlets may remain closed while initial restrictions ease.
For South Korea, visitor attractions have largely remained open throughout, albeit with significant physical distancing, contact tracing and other site efforts. The government has published a comprehensive guidebook on social distancing in everyday life. However, following relaxation, cases rose again and the government has shutdown some hospitality venues.
Australia has announced a three stage national framework with most visitor attraction public venues set for reopening in phase 2 and larger events and other venues plus interstate travel resuming in stage 3, subject to state and territory particulars. New Zealand will move from Level 3 to Level 2 alert on May 14th allowing some public venues to reopen (with schools the Monday following and bars the Thursday following). Groups will be capped at 10 and these decisions will be reviewed in two weeks, particularly around group sizes. Trans Tasman travel has been agreed when safe to do so.
For more information, refer to our recent webinar on The view from the other side: reopenings in Asia.