Simulation: support articles

In the Simulation module, you can use a combination of predictive analytics and playable assumptions to simulate various scenarios to deal with unusual or developing situations for forecasting a potential range of visitation, revenue and membership performance in order to align operations and spend. We recommend simulating at least three scenarios: best, worst and most probable cases.

Check out the webinar with Diana Pan, Chief Technology Officer at Museum of Modern Art (MOMA).

Simulations are designed to inform not replace business planning. During unpredictable or unprecedented times, consider scenarios a hypothesis rather than a prediction  for a wide range of possibilities.

Getting started

MODULE FUNCTIONALITY

Available in Simulation (free) or all paid plans

In the Simulation module you can: 

  • Create a simulation
  • Adjust assumptions for various conditions
  • Save, recall, edit and overwrite simulations
  • Download simulations to CSV
  • Explore contribution analysis*
  • Compare scenarios*
  • Commit scenario to plan*

Simulations include:

  • Visitation
  • Membership*
  • Revenue*

 

*Simulation+ upgrade

Users (4)

If you’re logging into Dexibit for the first time, refer to your inbox for your user invitation and details. If you haven’t received an invitation, ask your Account Administrator or contact us for help.

To login to Dexibit, go to login.dexibit.com or click ‘Login’ from the top right of dexibit.com, enter your name and password and click Login.

For security, you’ll need a complex password for your Dexibit login. After three failed attempts, your user account will be locked. If your account is locked, ask your Account Administrator to reset it or contact us for help.

 

To manage your user profile, click on the down arrow under your name at the top left. From here, you can adjust your name, email and profile picture. Click Update Details when complete.

On the preferences tab, you can adjust your regional settings such as your timezone and measurement system. Click Update Details when complete.

To logout of Dexibit, click on the down arrow under your name at the top left, then click Sign out.

To change your password, click on the down arrow under your name at the top left.

From here, click Change password. On the pop up modal, enter your new password and confirm the entry.

 

Once ready, click OK to continue or Cancel to exit.

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Simulation (17)

In Simulation, Dexibit provides a forecast of what would have happened in normal or usual times, from which you can simulate scenarios. This provides a hybrid approach of machine learning and manual assumptions.

Firstly, the machine learning forecast works by using statistics to find patterns in your venue’s own data history (preferably, referencing at least 12 months of daily data – though more is preferable), to train a model specifically designed to predict visitation. Then, you can manually adjust this base visitation into a scenario, using playable controls. These controls use a combination of scaling factors, alternate predictions and factor insights.

Because these simulations are based on an underlying forecast using machine learning models, the simulation will provide a quality indicator for the base prediction accuracy.

Simulations are built from a machine learning based forecast of what would have been, during normal or usual times. The underlying forecast accuracy is displayed as a bronze (70 – 80%),  bronze (70 – 80%) or gold (90%+) accuracy, measured on a weekly basis. These should be considered as a contingency on the final result, as a +/- range.

Premium plans have access to the full machine learning model, which features all sorts of factors into the forecast and results in higher accuracies. All other plans use a basic model incorporating time series, public holidays and school terms for the venue’s specific region. Providing additional years of data may increase underlying forecast accuracy.

From this underlying forecast, manual controls are then used to produce a simulation for scenario planning based on the user’s business judgement.

During unpredictable or unprecedented times, consider scenarios a hypothesis rather than a prediction  for a wide range of possibilities.

 

The following assumptions can be used to create an assumption:

  • Closures
    Initial reopening, rolling subsequent closures
  • Visitor origin
    International tourism (by region), domestic visitor origin (local, drive in or domestic fly in)
  • Capacity
  • Opening days and hours
  • Demand
    Pent up, slow growth and subsequent reopenings
  • Custom segments

Training data for the underlying forecast comes from your venue’s visitation data, based on the data sources and business rules you have configured under venue management. Historic visitation data is visible in the simulation as an orange line, which can be toggled on or off by clicking on ‘Actual visitation’ in the legend. The baseline forecast is visible in the simulation as a dotted shadow line, which can be toggled on or off by clicking on ‘Forecast’ in the legend.

Context for the model comes from an almanac of calendar events happening in and around the venue.

To navigate to the Simulation module:

  • Select the Simulation module from the left hand menu

To access the assumptions pane on the right hand side, click the pull out arrow at the top right.

To simulate visitation, apply various assumptions as desired by clicking the toggle on a condition to turn it on. Note some conditions may require the entry of additional data to complete the assumption, whereas others may include preset assumptions which may be adjusted. Some condition controls are playable, such as scaling factors.

Once selected, assumptions will automatically apply to the data in the simulation in real time.

Simulation+, Classic or Premium upgrade (not available on free plan)

To simulate revenue, scroll to the bottom of the assumptions pull out panel. Click the plus icon to add a line of business, and enter the line of business name and Average Revenue Per Visit (ARPV). The total revenue for the simulation will automatically calculate to the right. Repeat to add subsequent lines of business (for example, ticketed admission, hospitality, merchandise, parking etc), or alternatively use a single visitor spend to represent all lines of business. To delete a line of business, hover over the line and click the X icon to remove.

On the primary scenario visualization, select ‘Revenue’ from the drop down list to view the simulation.

Simulation+, Classic or Premium upgrade (not available on free plan)

To simulate membership, scroll to the bottom of the assumptions pull out panel. Enter the current member volume, expected new members converting from future visitation and expected lost members churning through cancellation (on a monthly basis).

On the primary scenario visualization, select ‘Membership’ from the drop down list to view the simulation.

Saving a scenario will enable you to recall a scenario later and share with other users. To save a scenario, click the Save icon from the page top right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

To save a new scenario, leave the radio button option on ‘New’ and give the scenario a name and click Save. To overwrite an existing scenario, choose ‘Existing’ and click Save.

To edit the date range of data displayed:

  • Click the calendar icon on the top right hand corner
  • Select a From date
  • Select a To date (your To date will need to be following your From date)
  • Click OK
  • Once you have made a selection, your screen will refresh.

If you are viewing data for over a year at a time, a message may display to indicate you are viewing a long period of data.

Simulation+, Classic or Premium upgrade (not available on free plan)

Below the scenario, you’ll find a contributions analysis describing where visitation has been lost from.

Simulation+, Classic or Premium upgrade (not available on free plan)

Below the scenario, you’ll find a visual comparison of all plans. Hover over each to identify the scenario and inspect the visitation on a given day. Toggle scenarios on or off using the legend.

Simulation+, Classic or Premium upgrade (not available on free plan)

Committing a scenario to plan will enable you to monitor your scenario against actual and compare to goals. To commit to plan, click the Commit icon from the page top right.

To analyze the impact of COVID-19 on initial slowdown, closure, reopening and recovery, scroll down in the Simulator module, or search to add an impact assessment visualization to any dashboard or report.

To download raw data from any visualization, click the download icon on the top right of a visualization. The data will download a CSV file to your desktop.

To expand a visualization, click on the expansion arrows cog icon at the top right of visualizations in a dashboard, insight, forecast or simulation.

From there, for select master visualizations, you can view summary and periodic totals for weeks, months, quarters and years, including downloading this data.

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