Booking lead time is one of those metrics that looks simple, until it starts shifting.

It influences almost everything: staffing confidence, marketing cadence, pricing decisions, cash flow timing, on site service levels and even how much risk sits inside your forecast. When lead times change, the muscle memory of how an attraction plans can quietly stop working.

Across a cross section of experience based visitor attractions with Dexibit (for the purposes of this data, we’ve looked at general admission attractions only, not event or performance based venues), the post pandemic story from 2023 to 2025 has two defining chapters:

1. 2024 was a compression year: more bookings moved into this month rather than further advance planning with the rise of the last minute planner

2. 2025 has thickened the tail: a growing share is booking far ahead, especially six to twelve months out from the scheduled time

The result is a booking curve that is starting to behave less like a smooth slope and more like a two mode pattern: lots of near term demand, plus a growing long range layer.

The booking curve in numbers

To make this tangible, here are the aggregate shifts in lead time buckets specifically for advance pass bookings (average share of tickets, excluding same day).

1. The near term stayed dominant, but did not keep accelerating. Tickets booked within 7 days were at 56% (2023), reduced to 54% (2025). Those booking within 1 day were at 32% (2023), reduced to 30.0% (2025). The last minute base is still huge, but it is not simply expanding every year.

2. Compression in the “book it this month” jumped, then settled. Those booking within 30 days leapt from 74% (2023) to 79% (2024) then back to 73% (2025). That 2024 lift is not driven by bookings made in the same week – it is primarily driven by the 8 to 30 day window. Specifically for 8 to 30 days, this group went from 18% (2023) to 22% (2024) back to 19% (2025). 

3. The middle thinned in 2024, then partially refilled in 2025. Those booking between 31 to 90 days went from 22% (2023) down to 15% (2024) then back up to 17% (2025). This is the signature of the compression year: the classic plan one to three months ahead segment shrunk.

The thickening tail: far ahead booking is growing fast

This is where the biggest structural change occurred the past year, representing a market opportunity as we head into 2026. 91+ days (more than a quarter out) went from 4% (2023) to 10% (2025). 181+ days (six months or more) went from a fractional 0.2% (2023) to 5% (2025), even with the 365+ days (a year or more) rising half a percent. Even if this year plus slice is still small, the direction matters: it signals that very far ahead is becoming a real part of the curve, not a rounding error.

Responding to compression

This compression is not just about visitors booking later. It’s more specific – the same week share stays broadly stable, the shift happens in the planning window that used to sit comfortably in 31 to 90 days – that demand moves into 8 to 30 days, turning next month into this month. This has very practical consequences for attractions. 

1) Your marketing window shrinks

If more demand is arriving in the 8 to 30 day window, then campaigns that used to be planned 6 to 10 weeks out can start underperforming unless you compress the cadence.

The playbook becomes: launch closer to arrival dates, refresh creative more often and make it easier to decide quickly (clear value, clear availability, low friction checkout).

2) Forecasts become more sensitive to short term shocks

When the middle (31 to 90 days) thins, the booking curve is less buffered. Things like weather, school calendars, events, transport disruption, protests, local news and viral social moments can have a bigger impact, because a larger share of your month is not yet committed.

3) You feel pressure to discount, even when you shouldn’t

Compression often triggers a panic reflex, that if bookings are coming later, we need offers. Sometimes that helps. Sometimes it trains guests to wait.

The more sustainable response is usually clarity and convenience, not always discounting. This means clearer availability messaging, better reschedule policies, compelling bundles (parking, F&B, retail) and timed entry that reduces risk of “we show up and it’s chaos”. 

Responding to the thickening tail

A thickening tail is different from compression. It means the far ahead end of your curve is getting heavier. The headline shift here is significant – not just a behavioural curiosity. It changes how you should design product, pricing and go to market.

1) The curve is becoming “two pace”

Many operators now need to plan for two distinct audiences at once: near term bookers deciding this week or this month, often local, often weather and schedule driven; versus long range planners: booking around school holidays, travel, seasonal programming, group plans, or limited capacity experiences. You do not win both with one message.

2) The tail is often a product mix signal

When the far ahead buckets grow, it often correlates with one or more of:

• More event style programming on the calendar

• Limited capacity products that reward early commitment

• Inventory released earlier

• Stronger group and education booking cycles

• Membership or pass holders locking in dates further out due to exclusivity, benefits and reschedule flexibility 

In other words: the tail usually thickens because something became bookable and desirable earlier.

3) You can use the tail to stabilise cash flow and operations

Long range bookings are not just nice revenue early. They can improve staffing confidence for peak periods, reduce the risk of under resourcing and allow more intentional demand shaping via timed inventory and price tiers. 

But they also bring a different risk profile, around aspects like reschedules, refund exposure and customer service load, especially if your policies are unclear or procedures messy. 

The operators who benefit from the tail build flexible, well messaged policies that protect both the guest and the business (preferably with a ticketing system capability to self service change).

One of the most important conclusions is that the curve is not moving in a straight line. In 2024  the middle compressed into this month, where as in 2025 the tail thickened further, while some mid range returned. The simplest way to think about it in terms of the intersect of operator strategy and visitor behavior is that 2024 rewarded fast decisions, where as 2025 is rewarding both fast decisions and far ahead planning.

That is exactly the environment where a one size fits all marketing and pricing model starts to feel inconsistent.

A practical playbook: dual engines

If you want a strategy that fits both compression and a thickening tail, build two complementary systems.

Engine 1: The near term conversion engine

Win the 0 to 30 day window without training guests to wait. Always on local search, maps, ;things to do this weekend’ style channels (and increasingly, prompts). Make sure you have weather triggered and event triggered messaging, where relevant. Offer simple bundles that reduce decision friction (such as family bundles, parking bundles, F&B credits). Have clear “what to expect” content (busy times, duration, accessibility) and fast checkout and mobile first flows. 

Avoid defaulting to discounts as the main lever, complex promo mechanics that slow down purchase and hiding availability until late in the funnel. 

Engine 2: The advance planning engine

Harvest the thickening tail and turn it into committed revenue, not just interest. What’s working right now include seasonal “calendar moments” campaigns (school holidays, summer, winter, special exhibitions), early access for members and subscribers, tiered pricing that rewards earlier commitment without racing to the bottom, deposit style group bookings where appropriate and email and retargeting sequences that keep the date top of mind without spamming. 

A key principle: sell the experience, not the timestamp. Long range buyers want reassurance that it will be worth it, that plans can flex and that they will not regret committing early. Remove the friction of perceived risk to convert ahead of time. 

If you want to deliberately grow the tail (and use it to reduce peak day pressure), these are the product patterns that tend to work across the sector:

Limited capacity experiences, seasonal formats and eventised programming
Small group tours, behind the scenes, tastings, talks, animal encounters, premium viewing. A clear calendar with “only happens during…” prompts early commitment.

Timed entry with meaningful differences between slots
Not just crowd control. Make some slots more desirable through programming, atmosphere, or bundled value.

Member and subscriber first access
This does two things: it pulls commitment earlier and it turns your database into a real demand shaping lever.

One metric to track? As well as looking at your advance pass share between a day, a week, a month, a quarter or more – look at your “tail marker”: How far out do you have to go to capture 95% of bookings?. When that number moves, your planning horizon needs to move too.